World Production of Olive Oil 2023/2024

The forecasts from the International Olive Council (IOC) indicate an 8% decrease in global olive oil production for the 2023/2024 campaign, reaching 2.4 million tonnes (Mt).

This decline comes despite sustained demand, with a slight estimated decrease of 3%, and relatively stable exports (-4%).

As a result, closing stocks are expected to decrease significantly, dropping by 63%.

This situation tends to drive prices up in 2024.

In Europe, production is expected to increase by 7% to reach 1.5 Mt.

However, major producing countries, faced with unfavorable weather conditions such as heatwaves and low summer rainfall, have failed to reach pre-2022 production levels, except for Greece, which has recorded a significant decrease.

High prices are expected to impact consumption and, consequently, exports.

Regarding France, after a disappointing harvest in 2022/23 with only 3500 tonnes, down by about 40% compared to the previous one, industry stakeholders estimate that the next harvest will be satisfactory.

However, these forecasts do not apply to all production areas.

Outlook for the 2023/2024 Campaign

For the 2023/2024 olive campaign, globally, production is expected to be below the average of the previous four campaigns, for the second consecutive year.

Major producing countries are estimated to produce 1.9 million tonnes, representing a 7% decrease from the previous year.

However, despite this global downward trend, initial estimates from the European Union indicate that olive oil production in Europe should be around 1.5 million tonnes, up by 7% from the previous campaign, where it was 1.4 million tonnes.

In the major global olive oil-producing countries, divergent trends are observed.

Western Mediterranean countries, such as Spain, Italy, Portugal, Tunisia, and Morocco, forecast stable or increasing harvest volumes compared to 2022/23.

Conversely, Greece and Turkey report a significant decrease in their production, exceeding 40%.

Situation in Spain, Italy, and Tunisia

In the western production basin, although production is expected to slightly increase, olive growers in the Western Mediterranean are facing persistent drought and water shortages, conditions exacerbated by climate change.

For example, in Spain, production halved over the past two years but is expected to increase by 7% compared to the previous campaign, reaching around 550,600 tonnes, accounting for 72% of Spanish volumes.

Italy, the world's second-largest producer after Spain, is experiencing a production rebound of about 25% for the 2023/24 campaign, reaching estimated volumes of nearly 300,000 tonnes.

This increase is mainly due to good performances in the southern regions.

In Tunisia, production is expected to bounce back by 11% compared to 2022, reaching around 200,000 tonnes due to favorable climatic conditions and consistent investments in irrigation.

Situation in Greece and Turkey

In the eastern production basin, Turkey and Greece have faced major climatic challenges.

Turkey, which recorded a record production of 380,000 tonnes in 2022, is expected to see its production drop to only 200,000 tonnes in 2023/24, a decrease of 45%.

In Greece, production is also expected to decrease by 42% compared to last year, reaching around 200,000 tonnes, due to prolonged drought and storms.

Situation in France

In France, despite challenges related to climate change, production forecasts are more optimistic than the previous year.

Estimated at nearly 4,500 tonnes, production is expected to grow by about 25% compared to 2022.

However, significant production disparities are observed between different olive-growing areas, with harvests affected by drought in some regions.

It is therefore crucial for producing countries to develop sustainable irrigation strategies to cope with future climate challenges.

For the 2022/2023 French campaign, olive oil production was heavily affected by unfavorable weather conditions.

High temperatures early in the campaign, coupled with low precipitation levels, had a negative impact across the olive-growing area.

These weather conditions, especially high temperatures during flowering and prolonged drought, as well as storm episodes in the fall, particularly affected non-irrigated orchards.

As a result, production for the 2022/2023 campaign was relatively low.

Optimizing orchard productivity remains a priority for French producers.

However, it should be noted that nearly 75% of French olive-growing areas are managed by amateur producers, whose level of technical expertise may be insufficient to optimize orchard management.

This highlights the need to provide support and technical advice to producers to improve orchard management and mitigate the impacts of adverse weather conditions on olive oil production in France.

Total olive oil production is estimated at 3,531 tonnes, registering a decrease of nearly 40% compared to the previous 2021/22 campaign, where it was 5,785 tonnes, and a 28% decrease compared to the average of the previous four campaigns, established at 4,883 tonnes.

The national average yield reached a satisfactory rate of 15%, with variations observed between different production areas, ranging from 12 to 19%.

In the departments of Bouches-du-Rhône, Gard, and Vaucluse, olive oil production accounted for more than half, or 55%, of the total, while the Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur (PACA) region alone accounted for 61% of the volumes produced.

French Olive Oil Marketing

Regarding the marketing of French olive oil in 2022, it is estimated at 1,960 tonnes. A trend of slowing sales volumes is observed, with a decrease of 11% compared to 2021 and 32% compared to 2020.

In a disrupted economic context, marked by an energy crisis and increasing inflation, the 2022/23 marketing campaign took place in an environment unfavorable to the consumption of high-value-added products, including French olive oil.

The overall increase in food prices, resulting mainly from rising production costs, was estimated at over 20% for oils and fats, which had the effect of slowing down economic recovery.

Evolution of Olive Oil Prices

The decrease in production volumes led to an increase in olive oil prices, observed in major markets such as Jaén in Spain, Bari in Italy, and Chania in Greece, which represent approximately 60% of global production and are indicative of trends in the European Union.

Since the 2019/20 campaign, the price of olive oil has continued to rise, reaching record levels in 2023, with an average increase of about 70% for all qualities of olive oil combined.


According to a Nielsen report, the turnover of olive oil in France in large-scale distribution, for the period from the 2022/2023 campaign to April 2023, amounted to 569 million euros, representing an increase of 2% in value but a decrease of 7% in volume sold.

Olive oils accounted for 48% of the edible oils market in value.

To compensate for the decrease in sales volume, industry players must adapt by offering innovative alternatives.

This can include olive oils from sustainable agriculture or guaranteed pesticide-free, packaging formats at more affordable prices, or the development of ranges based on virgin olive oil, which is about 20% cheaper than extra virgin oil.

Although no shortage is yet envisaged, stocks of major European suppliers tend to decrease due to the general decline in production.

To meet current quality standards, buyers must diversify their sources of supply by turning to countries outside the traditional production zone.